Poll suggests support for McCain hinges on VP pick

Sen. John McCain's 10-point lead in Arizona over Sen. Barack Obama - and possibily his chances of winning the White House - could hang on his choice for vice president, a survey suggests.

Pollster Bruce Merrill said the state's senior senator is maintaining his lead over the likely Democratic nominee "mainly because evangelicals and conservative Democrats are disproportionately supporting him."

But Merrill, who conducted the survey of 402 registered voters earlier this month for KAET-TV, the Phoenix PBS affiliate, said that fact has to weigh on McCain's mind as he sifts through potential running mates. And that list, Merrill said, includes at least one "pro-choice" candidate: former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge.

"I don't think he can afford to do that," Merrill said of the possibility of a McCain-Ridge ticket. He said that while Pennsylvania's electoral votes are important, anything McCain picks up there would be lost elsewhere.

"McCain really has not unified the base of the party that has elected every Republican candidate since the Moral Majority started in the '60s," Merrill said.

He said some voters would be "incensed" about such a choice, pointing to statements earlier this week by some ministers warning McCain against choosing a running mate who does not share the senator's view that the historic Supreme Court decision making abortion legal should be overturned.

Merrill said that McCain also could run the same risk if he were to choose former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

On one hand, Merrill said, Romney would be a very attractive vice presidential contender.

"He's got business experience," Merrill said. "He's good-looking, he's young, he's got lots of money he could spend."

He's also a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

"A lot of the religious right don't consider Mormons to be Christians," Merrill said.

The survey, which shows McCain leading Obama in Arizona by a 40-30 margin, also finds that much of the Republican contender's support is not so much about him as it is about his foe: Fully 30 percent of those who said they intend to vote for McCain said they are doing so primarily to vote against Obama.

Conversely, only 16 percent of Obama voters said they are voting against McCain.

Merrill said he believes that's a direct reflection of McCain's campaign doing more to attack Obama.

And he noted that 38 percent of those questioned said McCain was running a negative campaign, compared to just 26 percent who said the same thing about Obama.

The poll's margin of error is 4.9 percentage points.

Presidential poll

Q: Who will you probably vote for in November:

John McCain (R) 40%

Barack Obama (D) 30%

Ralph Nader (I) 2%

Bob Barr (L) less than 1%

Undecided 28%

McCain voters:

Voting more for McCain 60%

Voting more against Obama 30%

Don't know/no opinion 10%

Obama voters:

Voting more for Obama 76%

Voting more against McCain 16%

Don't know/no opinion 8%

Q: What type of campaign is McCain running against Obama:

Very positive 7%

Positive 41%

Negative 26%

Very negative 12%

Don't know/no opinion 14%

Q: What type of campaign is Obama running against McCain:

Very positive 11%

Positive 46%

Negative 20%

Very negative 6%

Don't know/no opinion 17%

Source: KAET-TV

Chart data: Survey of 402 registered voters statewide conducted Aug. 14-16; margin of error is 4.9 percentage points.